| 马 煜.降雨激发浅层滑坡发育特征与阈值研究——以江西省全南县大吉山“2019.6.10”灾害为例[J].地质与勘探,2023,59(5):1065-1073 |
| 降雨激发浅层滑坡发育特征与阈值研究——以江西省全南县大吉山“2019.6.10”灾害为例 |
| Rainfall threshold and development characteristics of shallow landslides induced by rainfall: A case study of?the "June 10th, 2019" disaster in the Dajishan area, Quannan County, Jiangxi Province |
| 投稿时间：2022-06-06 修订日期：2022-10-19 |
| DOI：10.12134/j.dzykt.2023.05.012 |
| 中文关键词: 浅层滑坡 发育特征 地形特征 降雨阈值 大吉山 江西省 |
| 英文关键词: shallow landslides, develop characteristics, topographic features, rainfall threshold, Dajishan area, Jiangxi Province |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（编号：U21A2032）、福建省科技防灾课题（编号：闽自然资发[2020]46号）、乐山市科技局科研项目（编号：21SZD070、21SZD071）和成都理工大学工程技术学院科研项目（编号：C122022011）联合资助 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 2019年6月10日江西省全南县大吉山社区流域在一次降雨量171 mm、最大小时降雨量40.5 mm作用下发生了116处浅层滑坡。通过影像识别、野外调查、GIS分析和数理统计等方法分析了该地区浅层滑坡的发育特征、地形特征及此次滑坡发生的降雨阈值。结果表明：（1）滑坡的特征参数表明降雨事件诱发的滑坡均为小型、浅层、形态以“宽薄型”为主的滑坡。（2）通过滑坡数量百分比（LSNP）和滑坡面积百分比（LSNP）等指标显示滑坡发育的地形条件中滑坡坡度、相对高程、地表曲率对滑坡具有较明显的控制作用，坡向和临空面对滑坡分布影响性不强，人类工程活动对滑坡发育的影响不容忽视。（3）利用现有预报模型，计算出该区域浅层滑坡发生的阈值P＜0.21、0.21≤P＜0.40、P≥0.40分别对应发生可能性小、中等和大，以及发生浅层滑坡需要的一次最少降雨量为70 mm。该成果可为类似地质背景地区的浅层滑坡风险管理和灾害预警提供重要参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| On June 10th of 2019，the Dajishan area in Quannan County of Jiangxi Province underwent an intense rainstorm with one-time rainfall of 171 mm and maximum rainfall of 40.5 mm per hour, which has induced 116 shallow landslides. This work conducted image interpretation, field survey, GIS analysis and mathematical statistics to analyze the characteristics, topographic features of shallow landslides, and proposed the threshold of the probability of hazard occurrence. Results show that: (1) the characteristic parameters of the landslides indicate that the landslides are small, shallow, and the morphology is mainly "wide and thin type" landslides. (2) The indicators of landslide number percentage (LSNP) and landslide area percentage (LSAP) show that the topographic conditions of landslides, such as slope, relative elevation and surface curvature have a more obvious controlling effect on landslides, the aspect and free-face do not have a strong influence, and the influence of human engineering activities on the development of shallow landslides cannot be ignored. (3) The forecast model was used to determine the threshold values of P＜0.21, 0.21≤P＜0.40, and P≥0.40 for the occurrence of shallow landslides in this region, which correspond to small, medium and large occurrence possibilities, respectively. The minimum rainfall for the occurrence of shallow landslides is 70 mm. This study of great significance for the risk management of shallow landslides in the areas with similar geological backgrounds and for the early warning of disasters. |
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