| 陈其慎.中国海外石油供应风险分析[J].地质与勘探,2018,54(6):1091-1098 |
| 中国海外石油供应风险分析 |
| Risk analysis of Chinese overseas oil supply |
| 投稿时间：2018-05-10 修订日期：2018-10-12 |
| DOI：10.12134/j.dzykt.2018.06.001 |
| 中文关键词: 石油 进口 风险 评价 |
| 英文关键词: oil, import, risk, evaluation |
| 基金项目:中国地质调查局地质调查二级项目“‘一带一路’64国矿产资源供需格局与产能合作选区分析”（编号：121201103000150007）和中国工程院院士科技咨询专项“一带一路冶金产业国际合作研究”（编号：2017-ZD-15-05-01）联合资助 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 从进口集中度、进口来源国稳定性、运输通道风险和进口量占世界比例四个指标入手，构建了海外石油供应风险评价方法，定量评价了2000年至2017年中国海外石油供应风险变化趋势，结果显示，过去17年，中国海外石油供应风险整体呈不断增长趋势。通过分析中国海外石油供应风险不断提高的原因，研判未来中国海外石油供应风险趋势，提出了提高中国石油供应安全的对策建议：一是努力提高核能、太阳能、水电、风能等新能源供应比例，力争到2030年将石油消费量控制在总能源消费的13%以内；二是全力保障中东石油供应安全，持续推进中俄石油资源合作，巩固、提升中亚石油资源供应能力，加强与非洲、东南亚、南美等地的石油合作；三是平衡多渠道来源，到2025年，力争进口来源实现中东1/4，俄罗斯及中亚1/4，美洲1/4，非洲及东南亚等地1/4，真正实现中国石油资源供应安全。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Starting with the four indicators of import concentration, stability of import source country, transportation channel risk and import volume, this paper builds an assessment method for overseas oil supply risk to quantitatively evaluate the trend of China's overseas oil supply risk from 2000 to 2017. The results show that over the past 17 years, China's overseas oil supply risks have shown an overall increasing trend. We analyze the reasons for such a situation, predict the future risk of China's overseas oil supply, and provide suggestions for improving China's oil supply security as follows. First, efforts should be made to increase the proportion of new energy sources such as nuclear energy, solar energy, hydropower, and wind energy, and strive to control oil consumption within 13% of total energy consumption by 2030. Second, our country should safeguard the oil supply from the Middle East, continue to promote Sino-Russian oil resources cooperation, consolidate and enhance the supply of petroleum resources from Central Asia, and strengthen oil cooperation with Africa, Southeast Asia, South America and other nations. Third, by 2025, we should strive to achieve that of the import sources, 1/4 comes from the Middle East, 1/4 from Russia and Central Asia, 1/4 from America, and 1/4 from Africa and Southeast Asia and other places, surely realizing the security of China's oil resources supply. |
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